School of War Reader: America Cannot Ignore the Middle East
America Cannot Ignore the Middle East
Aaron MacLean, Engelsberg Ideas
My October 2023 piece on the costs of US disengagement from the Middle East – newly relevant today:
The more responsible versions of the desire to focus American military power in Asia to the exclusion of other Eurasian theatres proceed from reasonable starting points. America’s unipolar moment is past, and the size of the Chinese economy combined with the wealth and significance of the east Asian periphery renders the threat posed by China unlike any America has faced in its history. Strategy involves the assignment of scarce means to ends. Acting as though means are not scarce is, by definition, un-strategic. America must prioritise, and whatever the threat posed by Russia, Moscow is not on Beijing’s level. Similarly, the threats posed by Iran or by Sunni extremist forces in the Middle East are not even nuclear (for now) and, as terrible as attacks on friends or terrorist attacks can be, such events pale in comparison to the fundamental changes in American security and prosperity that a hostile China might seek to bring about. Additional considerations, less frequently mentioned by those making versions of the Asia-Only argument counsel great caution in how America should act, should think, and should talk regarding its regional distribution of hard power. Among those considerations are how even mere diplomatic efforts to lay foundations for a reduction of the American role in regional balances of power can introduce instability (let alone actual adjustments to the balance). And how such instability can ultimately make demands on American power that Washington would, for good reason, rather have avoided.
The Ultimate Deception: How Trump and Bibi Outfoxed Iran
Mike Doran, The Free Press
Guest Mike Doran outlines Iran’s grave miscalculation of US intentions:
The Iranian analysis was, in nearly every respect, correct. They saw the gap between Trump and Netanyahu. They understood that Trump wanted a deal and was restraining Israel. They calculated that Israel could not act alone—that it depended on U.S. missile defense infrastructure, CENTCOM coordination, and the cooperation of Arab states disaffected over Gaza. They knew only the United States could prevent Iran from widening the war—and they believed Trump had no appetite for escalation. They were right about all of it. Except for one thing: Trump meant what he said. Netanyahu took everything the Iranians understood—everything that was true—and used it to hide the two truths that mattered: Trump will not let Iran get the bomb; and Netanyahu was prepared to act boldly on that knowledge. The heart of the deception was not a lie and not even a misdirection—it was the absence of deception entirely.
Netanyahu Flips the Script
Walter Russell Mead, Wall Street Journal
Recent guest Walter Mead on Netanyahu’s reversal of political fortune:
A coalition in revolt, prosecutors on his heels, powerful rivals looking to unseat him, chilly relations with Mr. Trump, growing opposition from Europe, skeptical military and intelligence chiefs and a hostile press—few leaders anywhere have faced this kind of pressure. By week's end, Bibi had flipped the script. A series of military blows exposed the weakness of Iran’s sulphurously belligerent regime and demonstrated Israel’s military and intelligence supremacy in the Middle East. The government crisis subsided. Mr. Trump praised Israel’s audacious attack. As in the months after Oct. 7, 2023, a determined prime minister harnessed the Israeli military machine to orchestrate a dazzling series of victories that stunned the world even if they did not win it over.
Addressing U.S. Army Pacific’s Urgent Watercraft Problem
Cameron McMillan, Bradley Bowman, and Logan Rolleigh, RealClearDefense
How Washington can put the Army’s watercraft fleet back on course:
The Army is considering canceling its new logistics ship, the Maneuver Support Vessel-Light (MSV-L), as part of a service overhaul, according to reporting from last month. The report follows testimony from the former commander of U.S. Army Pacific, General Charles A. Flynn, in May in which he warned Congress that “the threat of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan is no longer distant or theoretical.” Despite this reality, serious gaps in Army capability and capacity in the Pacific remain. Indeed, as the Army eyes this threat and attempts to transform the force, Washington must act quickly to modernize and expand the Army’s watercraft fleet. That means adopting Government Accountability Office (GAO) recommendations, investing in manpower, equipment, and forward-stationed maintenance capabilities and shipyards to improve watercraft readiness, and taking advantage of commercial contracting opportunities.
Trump’s Big Opportunity in Japan
Mike Gallagher, Wall Street Journal
Guest Mike Gallagher on how Trump should engage Japan to counter China:
On my visit to Tokyo last month, I heard confusion and consternation from policy and business leaders about developments in Washington. Joe Biden blocked the merger of U.S. Steel with Nippon Steel on spurious national-security grounds. While Mr. Trump reversed that decision, he has imposed 24% across-the-board minimum tariffs on Japan, combined with 50% tariffs on steel and aluminum. Tatsuya Terazawa, a former vice minister at Japan’s Economy Ministry, claims these tariffs make it “too risky to rely too much on trade with the United States.” Even before current disagreements over trade, the Biden administration’s flagship economic initiative with Japan—the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework, or IPEF—was an acronym in search of a strategy. Mr. Hegseth’s Partnership for Indo-Pacific Industrial Resilience has more promise, but Tokyo and Washington need a more ambitious economic agenda. It’s time to take a lesson from Mr. Ohtani and swing for the fences, moving beyond a narrow focus on sectoral trade deficits. America must build new institutions designed to defend both countries from the Chinese Communist Party’s economic aggression, the way our alliance already defends us from Chinese military aggression.